Happy New year. As we enter out third year of this pandemic there is hope on the horizon that we may soon be at the end of this pandemic or that we may be at a point where we can peacefully co-exist. Hopefully this is the year where we will see the end of COVID and its Mutations.
The spikes we are seeing now are similar to the spikes we saw last year at this time after the holiday season which as it turns out is the peak super spreader season. The big difference between the Holiday Season (Thanksgiving thru New Year’s) 2020 and (Thanksgiving thru New Year’s) 2021 is that everything remained opened and people for the most part were not as careful this year with respect to gatherings as they were last year.
So there is reason to be optimistic but we should not let our guard down just yet because people are still dying. We have the tools. Vaccines, booster anti virals and other pharmaceuticals. We should continue to practice the mitigation factors that worked well at the outset of this pandemic. Washing of your hands, wearing your mask, maintaining social distancing, avoid contacts outside your immediate family unit and make sure you are vaccinated before interacting with any child who is not vaccinated.
Omicron could be even less deadly than flu: Scientists believe the worst of the pandemic is over.
Some experts have always maintained that the coronavirus would eventually morph into a seasonal cold-like virus as the world develops immunity through vaccines and natural infection. But the emergence of the highly-mutated Omicron variant appears to have sped the process up.
Researchers at Washington University modelling the next stage of the pandemic expect Omicron to kill up to 99 per cent fewer people than Delta and could be less deadly than flu. Their research shows COVID killed one in 33 people who tested positive at the peak of the devastating second wave last January, compared to just one in 670 now. But experts believe the figure could be even lower because of Omicron. The case fatality rate for the seasonal influenza is 0.1, the equivalent of one in 1,000.
FOURTH BOOSTER: Moderna CEO Stephane Bancel said people may need a fourth vaccine shot in the fall of 2022 to boost their protection against COVID-19.
Speaking at the Goldman Sachs Healthcare CEO Conference on Thursday, Bancel said current boosters are likely to protect people through this winter amid a surge in the Omicron coronavirus variant. But their efficacy will probably wane in the months ahead.
"I would expect that it's not going to hold great," Bancel said of the booster over time. "I still believe we're going to need boosters in the fall of '22 and forward."
He added that those who are older, in higher-risk jobs, or who have underlying health issues may need boosters every year.
Bancel’s comments come after Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett cited a study earlier this week that a fourth dose against the virus boosts antibodies five-fold, a week after the shot is administered.
Omicron may peak in the US fairly soon, Harvard experts say: Based on the quick rise and precipitous drop of Omicron in South Africa, Harvard experts are cautiously optimistic about a possible decline of the surging COVID variant in the very near future, even as they warn of dramatic case spikes, overloaded hospitals, and slowly rising deaths in the interim.
“In South Africa, the omicron wave lasted on the order of weeks. I would imagine that this will be something that lasts similarly long, perhaps a bit longer in the U.S.,” said Jake Lemieux, an infectious diseases specialist at Massachusetts General Hospital.
“There’s a seasonal component to it—there was last season—so I think it’s going to be a difficult winter, and the maximal period seems like it’s about to unfold over the next few weeks.”
According to Columbia University's Dr. Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease modeler and epidemiologist, "our projections depict a rapid surge of cases nationally that peaks at record high numbers during the first one to three weeks of January," he wrote Thursday 1/6/22.
New York City is likely to hit its peak by the end of the week, Shaman wrote, with other cities following in the next two weeks. The wave will likely produce a record number of new cases, "but a smaller fraction of those cases will require hospitalization," in part because more Americans are vaccinated now than ever before.
Omicron and Vaccines/Boosters: Study conducted by researchers at the Ragon Institute at Massachusetts General Hospital, MIT, and Harvard revealed that coronavirus vaccines, particularly without a booster shot, are much less effective against Omicron than other variants, although they do seem to prevent serious disease. They found that the best antibody response came from getting two doses of the mRNA vaccines from Moderna and Pfizer, followed by a booster. The booster created “substantially higher” antibodies than vaccination followed by infection, said the authors. The author’s emphasize the importance of getting boosters to evade omicron’s remarkable ability to evade immune protection either from vaccines or infection, which goes a long way to explain its explosive growth rate
CDC reports record number of child COVID-19 hospitalizations: While there have been a record number of pediatric hospitalizations due to COVID-19 and that pediatric hospitalizations are at the highest point they have ever been during the pandemic they are much lower when compared to adults
The increase was seen most in children younger than 4, who are ineligible for vaccination, and the data include those admitted to hospitals for reasons other than COVID-19 who then tested positive.
According to CDC data, in the week ending Jan. 1, children under the age of 4 had 4.3 COVID-19 associated hospitalizations per 100,000. Children ages 5 to 17 had only 1.1 hospitalizations per 100,000. Both are well under the rate of 14.7 per 100,000 in adults over 65.
“It's critically important that we surround children with people who are vaccinated to provide them protection,” Walensky said. “This includes at home, at day care and preschool and throughout our entire community.”
Coronavirus: Health experts not alarmed by variant identified in France:
Despite its many mutations, experts are not overly concerned about new coronavirus variant B.1.640.2, first discovered in a traveler returning from Cameroon to France. Very low vaccination rates generally favor the emergence of new coronavirus mutations. In Cameroon, only 2.4% of the population are fully vaccinated, according to data from the Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore in the United States.
As long as the vaccination campaign isn't advanced globally, new variants will continue to develop. Sometimes they are more harmless, sometimes more dangerous. It remains to be seen how harmful this new variant will be.
What is being done currently to thwart COVID -19: There remain more than 100 different vaccines in human trials and development for COVID-19, from protein subunits to inactivated coronavirus vaccines, as well as another 70-plus in animal trials.
So, is boosting with our existing authorized vaccines going to be our "new normal?" Or, are there new vaccines still in development that would allow us to truly be "one and done." Only time will tell.
Triple Vaccinated and Still Get COVID-19? You May Have 'Super Immunity' says Dr. William Schaffner a Professor of Preventive Medicine in the Department of Health Policy as well as Professor of Medicine in the Division of Infectious Diseases at the Vanderbilt University School of Medicine, Nashville, Tennessee.
“If you’ve had that Omicron infection, you can still give it to others. So if that happens to you, keep your social distance. If you've been tripled-vaccinated and still get COVID-19, experts say you may become “super immune.” “Super immunity refers to those people who are double vaccinated and boosted, and then get a minor Omicron infection. Their immune system is really revved up and they should be, after that, extraordinarily well-protected,” says Dr. William Schaffner.
Until next time, Stay Safe, Stay Well, Practice Mitigation Factors including Mask wearing, Wash your hands frequently, consider getting Vaccinated if you have not already done so and get your Booster as soon as you are able. Any medical concerns as well as decisions about the vaccine should be made between you and your physician.
James A Vito, D.M.D.